Wow, it’s tough looking for work if you were employed in real estate or the mortgage business and your company imploded.

The subprime home-loan rush is history.

But its impact on the state’s work force is just beginning to play out as tens of thousands of real estate, finance and construction workers are left looking for work after a number of heady years.

A year ago, Ed Stush, a former senior vice president at a Fieldstone Mortgage office in Irvine, was earning six figures and enjoying the perks of senior management in an industry that seemingly had no growth ceiling.

Today, his former employer has filed for bankruptcy protection, and his income is zero. He can’t even get an interview for jobs paying less than half of what he used to make.

Like a lot of mortgage industry workers, Stush, 55, tried to get work in other kinds of financial services such as insurance, but he found a huge stigma attached to the mortgage industry that disqualified him from even being considered for many jobs.

“It’s unjust. If you were in the mortgage industry for a long time … employers think you’re used to making so much money that you’re not going to take $50,000 or $70,000 a year. … They also think (mortgage lenders) are all money-hungry pigs, but it’s not true. Employers are missing out on some really outstanding employees.”

It’s not uncommon to see disclaimers on Internet job postings that say: “NO REAL ESTATE OR MORTGAGE CANDIDATES PLEASE.” [Emphasis added]

Source:http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com/toros_running_of_the_bull/2008/04/no-real-estate.html

I talked to my good friend and competitor, Rich Mancini from Ann McBride Real Estate today about the market.  We talk about once a week, exchange war stories and discuss market conditions.

We’ve both been in the business for over 30 years.

We’ve been through the highs and lows of the real estate market in Connecticut. We discussed the market in the late 70’s when high interest rates slowed the market to a crawl, and the late 80’s when the economy stalled in the area.

Today Rich likened the real estate market in Connecticut to a Mexican Standoff.

According to Wikipedia, “a Mexican Standoff is a phrase referring to a strategic deadlock or impasse, in which no party can act in a way that ensures victory.”

Yep, that describes our current market.  Many sellers refuse or can’t reduce their prices.  Many buyers refuse or can’t pay those prices.

There is no victory in sight.

Like most other resort markets around the country the Deep Creek Lake and Garrett County Maryland real estate market for the year ending in 2007 can be summed up in the following sentence…..Total Number of Sales Down, Average Sold Price Up.

So the question then becomes - Was Deep Creek Lake a good real estate market in 2007 or not? The answer really depends on who you ask - if you already own property here your value went up again in 2007 so their answer would be that it’s still a very good market…if you ask someone who tried to sell their property last year you would probably get a mixed reaction - most still ended up selling for what they wanted but it certainly took a little longer to get there….if you ask any local Realtor they would probably tell you the market stinks - of course they would be saying that because less sales equaled less money in their pockets last year - or in simple terms, bad for us - not so bad for our current clients, still good for past clients.

Below is a snapshot of what occurred in our market in 2007;

No. of Homes Sold          Avg. Sold Price

2006               2007         2006              2007

Deep Creek Lake        308                 215        $537,498      $559,168

All of Garrett County   510                 374        $396,499      $400,460

(Includes DCL)

It’s important to note that the Deep Creek Lake numbers above include everything residential in nature - homes, town homes, condos, and a few fractional ownership sales we had. It also includes a wide variety of different locations and settings within the lake market - lakefront properties, lake access properties, lake view properties, Wisp Ski Resort properties, and properties that have no access to the lake but are just in the general vicinity. Those different types of properties can vary greatly in value.

The big question we get asked now - Is it a good time to buy at Deep Creek Lake?

For those of you thinking about buying we truly believe now is probably as good of a time as there is to seriously consider buying in this area. The fundamentals are still very much in place for future appreciation - but we probably won’t see the extremely high appreciation rates we saw earlier this decade. That’s for sure.

Why is it still a good time to buy? The main factor is inventory - if our inventory of lakefront and lake access homes remains low into the future - which it should because the entire lake is almost fully developed now - prices should continue up. There is no reason to believe our inventory will ever get that high on and around the lake - there are only a few parcels left that could possibly be developed. If you talk to anyone who has been around this market their entire life they would probably concur that prices have always gone up at Deep Creek Lake - ever since it’s inception in 1925. It’s very hard to go back in history and find a time that real estate values ever went down at Deep Creek Lake.

When will the number of sales start to go back up again? It’s hard to say really - the experts predict we won’t see a positive trend in the number sales until 2009 at the earliest. From what we’ve seen so far, 2008 is starting off a lot like 2007 did. We have our normal amount of potential buyers who want to buy a vacation home for personal use and have the means to do it - it seems we lost that group of people who were buying for speculation, quick flipping, and who might have been stretching themselves financially to make it happen. Those people seemed to have disappeared over the last year or so. The national media has made a lot people think that buying real estate is a bad thing to do right now - this situation won’t change until the perception shifts back to real estate being the “cool” or “in” thing to do again. But the smart buyers are the ones buying now - before things heat back up.

Some other interesting real estate happenings that occurred in our market in 2007 -

• A new record sold price for a lakefront home was set in 2007 - a new construction spec house in The Reserve at Holy Cross sold for $2,830,000.
• Two homes sold for over $2 Million in 2007 - in 2006 only one home sold for over $2 Million in this market.
• In 2007 there were 22 homes that sold for $1 Million or more - in 2006 there were 30 homes that sold for over $1 Million.

With so many great blog options for real estate agents, from ActiveRain and RealTown to Realtor.com and Blogging Systms, there is a great opportunity for agents to start blogging, position themselves as experts and drive traffic to their main Website.

The question is, how do you get more potential clients to find your blog?

One great way to do this, is to link your blog to every PowerSite you create. It’s very easy to do. Simply add a custom menu link to your blog, call it “My Blog” or “Hudson Valley Real Estate Blog” or whatever you like. You can even save this as part of a saved menu that can be reused with a single click for every new PowerSite.

Now that you’ve got your blog linked to every one of your listings, people are much more likely to find and read it. With a blog on each PowerSite, you are essentially driving traffic to it every time you advertise the home in print (using the PowerSite address like www.123AnySt.com), or publish the PowerSite to Realtor.com, Trulia, Google Base, craigslist and more.

Take a look at our sample PowerSite to see how the blog fits nicely into the listing presentation so that potential clients can learn more about you and what you have to say

Well as I write this we are moving into the middle of February. It feels like February, I mean its cold outside and the roads are messy. I am turning 40 this month so I know it’s February. I also know that one of my favorite times as every other realtors will soon be upon us.

SPRING! I want to let everyone know that we are seeing an increase in our phones, email and web traffic this month. No the market is not like 2006, but is is steady and we are selling properties daily. The media did a fantastic job of scaring everyone to death about how the government was going to come and get your home.

I went shopping a few weeks back at Opry Mills in Nashville. What did I see? certainly no recession, no fearful faces and no parking places either. We are very blessed to live in a city like Bowling Green and live in an area like South Central Kentucky. People always ask me my advice on real estate and what they should do when buying,selling or anything else. Here is a simple fact I want you to remember.

Always get with a professional who is in real estate. Do not try to go it alone.(I have seen so many horror stories, I could write a novel) The market is becoming extremely difficult for even us in the business to navigate. There is alot of information out in the world today and much of it is bad. That is one thing you are not told when surfing the web.

Real estate information is everywhere and everyone is a so called expert. The true test of being a successful real estate company and sucessful real estate agent is, can you deliver? Plain and simple, Can you deliver? While we at this company are human and yes sometimes even we make mistakes, we will always do everything in our ability to deliver. That is a simple message but that is the Crye-Leike difference and it is what you need in today’s market. Let me know what you think? ktinsley@crye-leike.com

NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Bets against commercial real estate surged this week as analysts ramped up warnings of increased downgrades and losses, especially if the economy falls into recession.

Yield spreads on some CMBX indexes tied to bonds backed by office buildings, hotels and retail stores soared to record highs on Friday, extending an even worse deterioration on Thursday, according to one investor. Most indexes rated “AA” and lower ballooned by more than 200 basis points to record levels on the week, JPMorgan data shows.

Standard & Poor’s, one of the rating companies whose downgrades on residential mortgages have created more than $100 billion in Wall Street write-downs, on Thursday said stability in commercial mortgage-backed securities could be shaken. Last year was a “pivotal” year for CMBS performance, Larry Kay, a director at S&P, said in a Thursday statement.

Future S&P studies “will likely show fewer upgrades and more downgrades and defaults, the result of tighter liquidity, the relaxed underwriting standards of the past few years, and current economic conditions,” Kay said.

Commercial real estate prices could drop as much as 26 percent from current levels, leading to $183 billion in total losses, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research. Of that, $150 billion has yet to be taken, the analysts said.

On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings said delinquencies in collateralized debt obligations backed by commercial real estate crept higher.

Hedge funds have been betting against, or shorting, the CMBX indexes since October, investors said. Some have simply switched positions from the ABX indexes benchmarked off of subprime mortgage bonds that because of their year-long drop have become more expensive and riskier to short, they said.

Most analysts at rating companies and investment banks agree that commercial property defaults will rise but not match the debacle seen in subprime home loans.  Continued…

I know that marketing a home for sale takes much more than dropping a sign on the front lawn and placing a few ads in a newspaper. Some real estate agents make work harder than others at being successful, which is true for any profession. However, there is no greater reward for me than accomplishing my sellers or buyers goal, before I ever think about being compensated. As a matter of fact, many long hard hours are put in before any real estate professional is ever compensated.

The next generation of a real estate agent has to work even harder, as marketing a home becomes technology oriented field. Marketing a home by way of a newspaper and a lawn sign, while valuable, are becoming a diminishing factor. Statistical trends are continually pointing at the Internet as one of the most useful tools in bringing home buyers and sellers together. Real estate agents and brokers have to work considerably harder at creating a presence online, because just having a website is not the only component to delivering results. It’s being found in the never ending number of websites popping up every day. I can say for myself, it has quickly become a value for my clients when I am able to get their listings sold faster, as a result of tireless efforts to create a presence online for their listings. Much the same way you found and are reading this blog entry.

Internet presence is only one component, its years of networking and knowledge, working though negotiations, streamlining the closing process, working with attorneys, coordinating showings, being available at all hours, working on holidays, and building relationships and list can go further. Consequently, when you look at some websites that say real estate agents are not telling you all there is to know about how easy it is to sell your home on your own, and for $30 dollar a month fee and a $25 lawn sign you can accomplish your goals. If it truly was that easy why isn’t everyone else doing it?

What is a blog site? What is a blog ?

A blog site is an interactive forum in which the owners offer information, and invites the readers to participate through comments. It is also a site that is NOT DEPENDENT upon a third party updating information- it can all be done by the owner of the site directly, without waiting for a third party to update or make changes.

Unlike a “stagnant” website offering updates without opinions or information daily, the venue often changes every few days, offering articles of interest (or not) to the reading public.

In real estate, blog sites are gaining momentum, and here is why: with traditional websites, while the information is updated, there is little in the way of connection (or not) between the reader and the “blogger.” While information can be obtained, there is no indication of the character of the real estate agent- rather, this has to be gleaned from a phone call, or visit.

While traditionally this has been the method for buyers and sellers of real estate, a blog site offers a glimpse into the character of the real estate agent- their business practices, their opinions on the market, business philosophies, etc. Consider a blog site as a way to pre-screen your real estate agent without actually interacting via traditional methods (a meeting, or phone call).

Generally, real estate blog sites offer all of the advantages of traditional websites, including market snapshots, homes for sale, buyer information- in addition to opinions offered by the author of the blog. While some companies choose to offer “generic” blogs, written by an outside source, many are authored by the owner of the site (in our case, a real estate blog-site- as opposed to website) or regular contributors.

While generic articles are fine for some, authors of original content tend to offer a glimpse into the real estate agent from whom you may decide to entrust your sale or purchase, via articles authored by the actual real estate agent.

Blog sites are growing, and as a relatively new phenomenon, come in all forms and topics. The North Fork of Long Island, New York has several terrific blog sites that offer interaction on topics from local “flavor”, to parents with challenges, to events in the area.

Consider a blog site the ability to interact, in most cases, with the author through an opportunity to “comment” on the blog that you have read.

SoutholdVoice

Realtor.com

lennthompson.typepad.com - this site offers insight into the wine industry.

longislandnewyork.blogspot.com offers varied topics, available to those interested in North Fork topics.

Larger newspapers, such as Newsday, http://www.newsday.com/blogs offer their own blog-sites, with commenting available.

And, of course, our own: www.optionsrealty.com, where we offer a perspective that is different from most real estate agents in our area.

While we offer community info, we also offer opinions on the real estate practices on the North Fork of Long Island. We definitely disagree with the way “things have been done”, and aren’t afraid to spill it, if we see a disadvantage to seller/buyers of property.

We offer opinions, and welcome opinions. Real estate is an ever-changing venue, and the more that real estate agents offer consumers an inside glimpse as to practices and real estate beliefs, the better- in our opinion!